Global life expectancy for males to be above 75, females above 80 years by 2050: Study

A recent study published in Lancet titled “Burden of Disease Scenarios for 204 countries & territories, 2022-2050: forecasting analysis for Global Burden of Disease(GBD) study-2021” has predicted that globally life expectancy of males will increase by 5 years and females over 4 years despite metabolic stress ,environmental stress and geopolitical issues.

As per the study, males and females are projected to live more by nearly 5 years by 2050. In males, life expectancy globally will increase by 4.9 years whereas in females it will increase by 4.2 years between 2022 & 2050, said the researchers . But the quality of life during these extra years remains unclear.

The study suggests, a possibility of more people living with disabilities for extended periods due to shift from battling infectious diseases to chronic illnesses like heart disease and diabetes.

Key findings suggest that there will be a 4.5 years increase in global life expectancy from 73.6 years of age in 2022 to 78.1 years of age in 2050. The countries currently with lower life expectancies are projected to have increased life expectancies reducing global disparities.

The disease burden will continue to shift from Communicable, Maternal, Neonatal & Nutritional diseases (CMNN) to Non-Communicable Diseases (NCDs). Ischemic Heart Disease will remain the number one cause of both Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) as well as Deaths both in 2022 as well as 2050. Stroke which in 2022 was third leading cause of DALYs will shift to second place in 2050. whereas Stroke will remain second leading cause of deaths both in 2022 & 2050.

Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) will remain the third leading cause of deaths both in 2022 as well as 2050. Diabetes & COPD which in 2022 were at 5th and 6th position of DALY will move to 3rd and 4th positions respectively for DALY.

Alzheimer’s & Chronic Kidney Diseases (CKD) which were at 7th and 10th position respectively for cause of deaths in 2022 will move upwards to 4th and 5th leading causes of deaths in 2050.

Elaborating the study, Dr. Atul Mathur, Executive Director, Interventional Cardiology & Chief of Cath Lab, Fortis Escorts Heart Institute, said, “Ischemic heart disease is same as coronary artery disease where obstructive blockages form in the artery due to deposition of atherosclerotic plaques. The reduced blood supply to heart muscle results in angina as a warning signal. A sudden blood clot formation on top of these blockages can result in a heart attack.

Preventive measures include healthy eating, regular exercise and good control of blood pressure, blood sugar and cholesterol, he said.

The report says that life expectancy and age-standardized disease burden were forecasted to improve between 2022-2050 with the majority of the burden continuing to shift from Communicable Maternal, Neonatal & Nutritional (CMNN) diseases to Non Communicable Diseases (NCD).